Latest modelling for COVID-19 in Onario

The rate of increase of COVID-19 infections in Ontario is slowing…..but we’re not yet at the point where restrictions can be eased.

That’s the judgment of provincial health experts, as they release the latest modelling data looking at the future course of the virus.

Doctor Steini (Stay-nee) Brown, the dean of the School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, says the growth rate has been between zero and one per cent in the past few days…down from the three to six per cent seen in their last report.

If that trend continues, the number of new daily diagnoses should remain stable….at about 15-hundred.

But Doctor Brown says if there’s another surge, like we saw earlier this month, we could be on track for as many as nine-thousand cases a day by the end of December.

Hospitalizations are still rising, and Brown says that will continue, since those numbers lag behind the infection rate by a couple of weeks.

We’re on track to have 200 people in intensive care next month, past the 150 cases that the government says would impact medical procedures.

But the province has been adding more capacity.

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